Mortgage And Refinance Charges Right this moment, June 21
Today’s mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates rose just inches last Friday. That was the end of a very bad week for these prices.
Global markets were volatile this morning. So forecasts are speculative. But with luck Mortgage rates could stay stable today – or almost stable.
Find and lock a cheap rate (June 21, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|program||Mortgage rates||Effective interest rate*||change|
|Conventionally fixed for 30 years||2,936%||2,936%||Unchanged|
|Conventionally fixed for 15 years||2.37%||2.37%||Unchanged|
|Conventional 20 years old||2.75%||2.75%||Unchanged|
|Conventionally 10 years fixed year||2,077%||2.11%||Unchanged|
|30 years permanent FHA||2,806%||3,464%||Unchanged|
|15 years fixed FTA||2,688%||3,291%||+ 0.22%|
|5 years ARM FHA||2.5%||3.22%||+ 0.01%|
|30 years of permanent VA||2,375%||2,547%||Unchanged|
|15 years fixed VA||2.25%||2,571%||Unchanged|
|5 years ARM-VA||2.5%||2,399%||+ 0.01%|
|Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.|
Find and lock a cheap rate (June 21, 2021)
COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
So last week has been a bad week for mortgage rates. But is this getting better? We probably will. But that doesn’t say much.
With a bit of luck, those still pending their mortgage interest payments may have avoided a bullet. But the big picture remains: Most economists assume that mortgage rates will rise overall when they finally break out of their current narrow range.
So my personal rate lock recommendations must remain:
- LOCK when close in 7th Days
- LOCK when close in fifteen Days
- LOCK when close in 30th Days
- LOCK when close in 45 Days
- LOCK when close in 60 Days
However, I do not claim to have perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So you can be guided by your instincts and your personal willingness to take risks.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here’s a snapshot of the score this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to roughly the same time last Friday, were:
- The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.48% from 1.50%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields, albeit less recently
- Important stock indices were mostly higher shortly after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower
- Oil prices increased to $ 72.02 from $ 71.16 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a major role in the development of inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
- Gold prices stable at $ 1,776 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
- CNN Business Fear and Greed Index – crashed to 30 35 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our record for accuracy won’t hit its old highs until things settle down.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this reservation so far Mortgage rates are likely to fall today. Note, however, that “intraday swings” (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find and lock a cheap rate (June 21, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
- Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
- Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
- When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust the closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
- The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so on
The equity markets in the Asia-Pacific region got into turmoil overnight and recorded heavy losses. Some of this can be traced back to an appearance by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard, on CNBC last Friday. He predicted that the Fed could raise its own interest rates (which have little to do with mortgage rates) as early as next year, earlier than previously forecast. The stock markets reacted badly to his words.
But what is bad for stocks can be good for bonds. 10-year government bond yields peaked last week at 1.58%. But they were back down to 1.43% tonight. Unfortunately, at 9:48 a.m. (ET) this morning, they were back up to 1.48%. And the returns on these particular bonds are usually closely related to mortgage rates.
So the immediate outlook for mortgage rates looks better. But they are clearly subject to significant volatility right now. And there is no guarantee they will stay low for long.
Meanwhile, the forces acting on these interest rates seem to have been closely coordinated to eventually drive them up. But nobody knows how quickly “finally” will arrive.
Of course, there is always the possibility that major catastrophe could undermine economic recovery and push mortgage rates down again. But that currently looks a lot less likely than the scenario most economists are predicting: higher mortgage rates in sight.
Mortgage Rates and Inflation: Why Are Rates Rising?
For more background information, see the weekend edition of this Saturday column, which offers more space for in-depth analysis.
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The latest weekly record low was hit on January 7th at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose.
However, those rises were largely replaced by falls in April, although these moderated in the second half of this month. Meanwhile, May saw declines that slightly outweighed the increases. Freddie’s June 17 report puts that weekly average at 2.93% (with 07 fees and points). Low from 2.96% the previous week. But it won’t include most of the sharp climbs we saw last week.
Expert Mortgage Rate Forecasts – Updated Today
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21, Q4 / 21) and the first quarter of 2022 (Q1 / 22).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were updated on June 16 and the MBAs on June 18. Freddie’s forecast is dated April 14th, but it is now only updated quarterly. So his numbers are starting to look stale.
|Forecasters||Q2 / 21||Q3 / 21||Q4 / 21||Q1 / 22|
However, with so many imponderables, current forecasts could be even more speculative than usual.
Find your lowest rate today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save only a quarter point in interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new price (June 21, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage report receives interest rates from several credit partners on a daily basis according to selected criteria. We’ll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. By averaging a number of rates, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.