Mortgage And Refinance Charges Right now, Oct. 4
Today’s mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates fell again last Friday. But we’re only back to ascents and descents that more or less cancel each other out. And it’s too early to be optimistic about ongoing declines.
Indeed, this morning first Mortgage rates are likely to rise today. But with so much volatility right now, there are no guarantees.
Find and lock a cheap rate (October 8, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|program||Mortgage rates||Effective interest rate*||Change|
|Conventionally fixed for 30 years||3,065%||3,081%||-0.02%|
|Conventionally fixed for 15 years||2,415%||2,442%||Unchanged|
|Conventional 20 years old||2,878%||2,914%||Unchanged|
|Conventionally fixed for 10 years||2,347%||2.405%||Unchanged|
|30 years permanent FHA||3,008%||3,765%||Unchanged|
|15 years fixed FTA||2,464%||3,107%||Unchanged|
|5/1 ARM FHA||2.34%||3,051%||Unchanged|
|30 years of permanent VA||2,848%||3,038%||Unchanged|
|15 years fixed VA||2,699%||3,048%||Unchanged|
|Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.|
Find and lock a cheap rate (October 8, 2021)
COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. To learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
I would still bet that mortgage rates will go up again very soon. But that is not a certainty.
And there is a glimmer of hope on Friday when a crucial economic report is due to be released (more below). That might just be enough to bring those rates down, but probably only if the report is disastrously bad.
So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
- LOCK when close in 7th Days
- LOCK when close in fifteen Days
- LOCK when close in 30th Days
- LOCK when close in 45 Days
- LOCK when close in 60 Days
However, I do not claim to have perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So you can be guided by your instincts and your personal willingness to take risks.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here’s a snapshot of the score this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to roughly the same time last Friday, were:
- the 10 year Treasury note yield increased from 1.48% to 1.51%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields
- Important stock indices were mixed shortly after opening. (Neutral for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower
- Oil prices climbed to $ 77.25 from $ 75.15 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a major role in the development of inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
- Gold prices fell to $ 1,752 from $ 1,758 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
- CNN Business Fear and Greed Index – held at 27 From 100. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our record for accuracy won’t hit its old highs until things settle down.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat, Mortgage rates are likely to rise today. Note, however, that “intraday swings” (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find and lock a cheap rate (October 8, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
- Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
- Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
- When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust the closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
- The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so forth
The big question about mortgage rates this week was summed up in a Financial Times headline this morning: “Will US job numbers pave the way for Fed curbing?”
The monthly official employment report appears on Friday. And there is a lot of riding on it.
If it’s good, okay, or a little bad, the Fed will likely continue to push ahead with its plans to “cut back” its cheap money policy from November 3rd. And these have kept mortgage rates artificially low for the past 18 months. So tapering will almost inevitably lead to noticeably higher mortgage rates.
But if this report is really awful, the programs behind these Fed policies could survive for a month or two.
So a disastrous employment report could drag these rates down. But any other species will likely push them up.
Other threats to lower mortgage rates.
In last Saturday’s weekend edition of this article, I set out the top six concerns investors are currently facing. Click the link for details.
Overall, these six (plus a seventh, that was the employment report) seem to me to point to higher mortgage rates in the short, medium, and long term. And increases can be significant and sustainable.
Of course, it is never impossible for these rates to go down instead of up. But it would probably take a terrible event to cause that. And one of them is less likely than the existing pressures that could push them even further.
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The latest weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose moderately.
However, as of April, these increases were largely replaced by decreases, albeit typically small. Recently, we’ve had a couple of months with these courses barely moving. But unfortunately September brought some strong climbs.
Freddies 30. September Report gives this weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 3.01% (with 0.7 fees and points), high from 2.88% the previous week. Personally, I am surprised that the increase was so modest because other sources suggest a stronger one.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were updated on September 20th and the MBAs on September 22nd. But Freddies was last updated on July 15th as these numbers are now only released quarterly. And his forecast looks seriously stale.
|Forecasters||Q3 / 21||Q4 / 21||Q1 / 22||Q2 / 22|
However, with so many imponderables, all of the current predictions can be even more speculative than usual.
All of these predictions anticipate higher mortgage rates soon or soon. But the differences between the forecasters are stark. And Fannie may not be involved in curbing Federal Reserve mortgage support while Freddie and the MBA do. Or maybe Fannie thinks the tapering will have little effect.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save a quarter point on interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new plan (October 8, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage report receives interest rates from several credit partners on a daily basis according to selected criteria. We’ll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. By averaging a number of rates, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.