Mortgage And Refinance Charges Right now, Oct. 22| Charges steady-ish
Today’s mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates rose again yesterday. And that brought it to its highest level in several months. But of course they remain ridiculously low in historical comparison.
So far this morning it looks like it is Mortgage rates today could remain stable or barely move. But that could change.
Find and lock a cheap rate (October 22, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|program||Mortgage rates||Effective interest rate*||Change|
|Conventionally fixed for 30 years||3,317%||3,336%||+ 0.07%|
|Conventionally fixed for 15 years||2,644%||2,672%||+ 0.04%|
|Conventional 20 years old||3.127%||3,161%||+ 0.08%|
|Conventionally fixed for 10 years||2,572%||2,628%||+ 0.04%|
|30 years permanent FHA||3,306%||4.07%||+ 0.08%|
|15 years fixed FTA||2,618%||3,262%||+ 0.05%|
|5/1 ARM FHA||2.78%||3,239%||+ 0.05%|
|30 years of permanent VA||3.17%||3,364%||+ 0.07%|
|15 years fixed VA||2.8%||3.15%||+ 0.01%|
|5/1 ARM-VA||2,622%||2,455%||+ 0.05%|
|Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.|
Find and lock a cheap rate (October 22, 2021)
COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Mortgage rates have risen steadily over the past few weeks. And I see little sign that they are falling behind anytime soon.
So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
- LOCK when close in 7th Days
- LOCK when close in fifteen Days
- LOCK when close in 30th Days
- LOCK when close in 45 Days
- LOCK when close in 60 Days
However, I do not claim to have perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So you can be guided by your instincts and your personal willingness to take risks.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here’s a snapshot of the score this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates compared to about the same time yesterday were:
- the 10 year Treasury note yield stable at 1.66%. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields
- Important stock indices were mostly higher shortly after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower. But that’s an imperfect relationship
- Oil prices rose to $ 83.38 from $ 82.60 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a major role in the development of inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
- Gold prices increased from to $ 1,810 $ 1,782 an ounce. (Good for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
- CNN Business Fear and Greed Index – from 69 inches to 70 inches higher From 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our record for accuracy won’t hit its old highs until things settle down.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat, Mortgage rates are likely to be unchanged or hardly changed today. Note, however, that “intraday swings” (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find and lock a cheap rate (October 22, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
- Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
- Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
- When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust the closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
- The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so forth
My hopes for a little breather on mortgage rates, uttered yesterday, were dashed before my metaphorical ink was dry. These courses ended much higher that day than they started.
Two forces pushed rates up in the last month or so:
- On September 22nd, the Federal Reserve signaled that it is very likely that it would scale back certain measures on cheap money, with a firm announcement for November 3rd and implementation by the middle of this month. Those guidelines included one that kept mortgage rates artificially low for the past 18 months
- The rates of new COVID-19 infections in America have been falling since September 13th. And the fear of the economic consequences of the pandemic has been the reason for the low mortgage rates since the coronavirus was first taken seriously
And there’s a third driver behind higher mortgage rates, but it’s not specifically tied to September. That’s inflation, which is hovering somewhere between warm and hot right now. Many expected that to cool off by now. But there is still no sign of it.
Some good news – maybe
For a few months now, I have been expecting the Fed’s easing of its cheap mortgage rate policy (“rejuvenating its quantitative easing policy” in Fed language) to spike those rates when announced. This last happened when a similar policy ended in 2013.
But this time it was much better to signal one’s intentions. So some of the rate hikes we’ve seen over the past few weeks are likely to see investors position themselves ahead of this almost certain November 3rd announcement.
And that could mean the announcement itself is causing a much smaller increase, if any. Is that good news? Maybe. You will have had many opportunities to lock at a lower price. And you will be less shocked if you haven’t done so by then.
Of course, nothing is inevitable. It is always possible that something catastrophic will come (e.g. but let’s hope these remain as unlikely as they currently appear.
For more information on the current impact on mortgage rates, see the weekend edition of these daily reports from last Saturday.
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The latest weekly record low was hit on January 7th at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose moderately.
However, as of April, these increases were largely replaced by decreases, albeit typically small. Recently, we’ve had a couple of months with these courses barely moving. But unfortunately we have mainly seen increases since the beginning of September.
Freddies Oct 21 Report gives this weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 3.09% (with 0.7 fees and points), high compared to 3.05% the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarter of 2021 (Q4 / 21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22, Q2 / 22 and Q3 / 22).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies and Freddies were published on October 15th and the MBAs on October 18th.
|Forecasters||Q4 / 21||Q1 / 22||Q2 / 22||Q3 / 22|
However, with so many imponderables, all of the current predictions can be even more speculative than usual.
All of these forecasts anticipate at least slightly higher mortgage rates in the near future.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save only a quarter point in interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new plan (October 22, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage report receives interest rates from several credit partners on a daily basis according to selected criteria. We’ll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. By averaging a number of rates, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.