Mortgage And Refinance Charges Right now, July 16
Today’s mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates fell moderately yesterday and hit their lowest point in the last month. And within sight of their all-time lows.
However, retail sales this morning for June were much better than expected. And it currently looks like it is Mortgage rates could go up today.
Find and lock a cheap rate (July 17, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|program||Mortgage rates||Effective interest rate*||change|
|Conventionally fixed for 30 years||2,811%||2,811%||Unchanged|
|Conventionally fixed for 15 years||2.125%||2.125%||Unchanged|
|Conventional 20 years old||2,625%||2,625%||+ 0.04%|
|Conventionally 10 years fixed year||1,944%||1,975%||-0.01%|
|30 years permanent FHA||2,641%||3,295%||-0.03%|
|15 years fixed FTA||2,482%||3,083%||-0.01%|
|5/1 ARM FHA||2.5%||3.213%||Unchanged|
|30 years of permanent VA||2.25%||2,421%||Unchanged|
|15 years fixed VA||2.25%||2,571%||Unchanged|
|Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.|
Find and lock a cheap rate (July 17, 2021)
COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
The last time mortgage rates were lower than yesterday was February 18, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly average. That was when they rose from their all-time low of 2.65% on January 7th. For once, I’m glad that I’ve been proven otherwise. Because I was expecting higher prices in the meantime.
But don’t assume the danger is over because Freddie, who updated his rate forecast yesterday, expects them to average 3.3% in the current quarter and 3.4% in the next. And all other great forecasters expect more or less higher rates soon.
So my personal rate lock recommendations must remain:
- LOCK when close in 7th Days
- LOCK when close in fifteen Days
- LOCK when close in 30th Days
- LOCK when close in 45 Days
- LOCK when close in 60 Days
However, I do not claim to have perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So you can be guided by your instincts and your personal willingness to take risks.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here’s a snapshot of the score this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates compared to about the same time yesterday were:
- The 10 year Treasury note yield was stable at 1.32% but rose this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields, albeit less recently
- Important stock indices were higher shortly after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower
- Oil prices fell on $ 71.91 from $ 72.33 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a major role in the development of inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
- Gold prices decreased from $ 1 to $ 1,826,827 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
- CNN Business Fear and Greed Index – Was not available this morning
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our record for accuracy won’t hit its old highs until things settle down.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this reservation so far Mortgage rates are likely to rise today. Note, however, that “intraday swings” (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find and lock a cheap rate (July 17, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
- Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
- Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
- When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust the closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
- The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so on
This morning’s retail sales numbers were important because they gave investors another clue as to whether the economic recovery is advancing or is in the doldrums. Currently, markets fear they could face headwinds as COVID-19 – and the Delta variant in particular – increasingly impacts world trade.
Just this morning the Bank of Japan (the equivalent of our Federal Reserve in that country) lowered its growth forecast for 2021. This is now 3.8%, compared to the 4% that the central bank estimated in April.
And of course, mortgage rates are usually low when the economy is in trouble – or when there is danger. And we may see interest rates generally low for a while as investors try to get a clear picture of what is going on.
Personally, I suspect that 2021 will be a good year economically. And that mortgage rates will soon rise again. But there is real danger in this scenario, and I may be over-optimistic. (Yes, I love low rates, but not at the expense of another recession.) Much depends on the Delta variant, the vaccination rates and any follow-up variants.
If the economy continues to recover, it could slow the Federal Reserve’s bond purchases, which I researched ad nauseam in the last few issues of this daily column. And that could lead to a sudden spike in mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rates and Inflation: Why Are Rates Rising?
For more background information, see the weekend edition of this Saturday column, which offers more space for in-depth analysis.
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The latest weekly record low was hit on January 7th at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose.
However, in April and since then, those increases have been largely replaced by decreases, if only marginally. Freddie’s July 15 report puts that weekly average at 2.88% (with 0.7 fees and points). Low from 2.90% the previous week.
Expert Mortgage Rate Predictions – Updated Today
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies updated on June 16th, Freddie is on 15th of July and the MBAs on June 18th.
|Forecasters||Q3 / 21||Q4 / 21||Q1 / 22||Q2 / 22|
However, with so many imponderables, current forecasts could be even more speculative than usual.
Find your lowest rate today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save only a quarter point in interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new plan (July 17, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage report receives interest rates from several credit partners on a daily basis according to selected criteria. We’ll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.