Mortgage And Refinance Charges In the present day, Sept. 27
Today’s mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates rose again last Friday. Fortunately, the increase was much more moderate than the day before. These rates remain exceptionally low by historical standards. But it would take something big to get them back near the all-time lows.
And that looks unlikely this morning. because Mortgage rates are likely to continue to rise today. But as always, markets can change over time.
Find and lock a cheap rate (October 3, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|program||Mortgage rates||Effective interest rate*||Change|
|Conventionally fixed for 30 years||3.111%||3.129%||Unchanged|
|Conventionally fixed for 15 years||2,468%||2,495%||+ 0.01%|
|Conventional 20 years old||2.986%||3.02%||+ 0.01%|
|Conventionally fixed for 10 years||2,398%||2,457%||Unchanged|
|30 years permanent FHA||3.11%||3,869%||Unchanged|
|15 years fixed FTA||2,525%||3,169%||Unchanged|
|5/1 ARM FHA||2,418%||3,068%||Unchanged|
|30 years of permanent VA||2.93%||3.121%||Unchanged|
|15 years fixed VA||2,705%||3,054%||+ 0.03%|
|Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.|
Find and lock a cheap rate (October 3, 2021)
COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Personally, I would set my mortgage rate as soon as possible. It’s true, nothing is certain. And it is never out of the question that these prices will sometimes fall again soon.
But that currently seems far less likely than that they will continue to rise (see below). However, any uptrend is inevitably interrupted by days and periods of relapses.
So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
- LOCK when close in 7th Days
- LOCK when close in fifteen Days
- LOCK when close in 30th Days
- LOCK when close in 45 Days
- LOCK when close in 60 Days
However, I do not claim to have perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So you can be guided by your instincts and your personal willingness to take risks.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here’s a snapshot of the score this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to roughly the same time last Friday, were:
- the 10 year Treasury note yield climbed from 1.45% to 1.48%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields
- Important stock indices were mixed shortly after opening. (Neutral for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower
- Oil prices elevated to $ 75.55 from $ 73.35 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a major role in the development of inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
- Gold prices rose to $ 1,752 $ 1,742 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
- CNN Business Fear and Greed Index – from 33 inches to 34 inches higher From 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our record for accuracy won’t hit its old highs until things settle down.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to rise today. Note, however, that “intraday swings” (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find and lock a cheap rate (October 3, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
- Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
- Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
- When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust the closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
- The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so forth
You can read all the details in the weekend edition of this daily report from last Saturday. To sum up, the forces currently set up to drive mortgage rates up are impressive. And the three most important are:
- The Federal Reserve has signaled that it will likely begin tapering on November 3rd. This means that they are scaling back their purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBSs – a type of bond that largely determines mortgage rates) will have kept mortgage rates artificially low for the past 18 months
- Congress is still arguing over the debt ceiling. And if it doesn’t raise that by early or mid-October, the US will fail to meet its obligations. And the cost of borrowing on all types of debt, including mortgages, is likely to increase, along with many other unpleasant consequences
- The reported new cases of COVID-19 continue to decline. And investor concerns about the pandemic have also helped keep mortgage rates down. As those worries subside, these rates are likely to rise
Could something come up that will change this scenario? Naturally. But it would have to be something big (and very bad) to slow – let alone reverse – the effects of these upward forces. And let’s hope that such a case is unlikely.
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The latest weekly record low was hit on January 7th at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose moderately.
However, in April and beyond, these increases were largely replaced by decreases, albeit typically small. Freddies September 23rd Report puts this weekly average at 2.88% (with 0.7 fees and points), high from 2.86% the previous week. But that doesn’t reflect the sharp increase on the day it was released.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were updated on September 20th and the MBAs on September 22nd. But Freddies was last updated on July 15th as these numbers are now only released quarterly. And his forecast looks seriously stale.
|Forecasters||Q3 / 21||Q4 / 21||Q1 / 22||Q2 / 22|
However, with so many imponderables, all of the current predictions can be even more speculative than usual.
All of these predictions anticipate higher mortgage rates soon or soon. But the differences between the forecasters are stark. And Fannie may not be involved in curbing Federal Reserve mortgage support while Freddie and the MBA do. Or maybe Fannie thinks the tapering will have little effect.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save only a quarter point in interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new plan (October 3, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage report receives interest rates from several credit partners on a daily basis according to selected criteria. We’ll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. By averaging a number of rates, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.