Mortgage And Refinance Charges Immediately, July 20
Today’s mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates fell noticeably yesterday. That’s four consecutive working days with falls. And they are extraordinarily low now; less than a million miles from its all-time low.
And they may not be done yet. Measured against the early activities in the key markets, these declines could slow down rather than stop. And Mortgage rates are likely to fall slightly today. But overnight markets were pointing to a small spike so things are far from stable and could change over the hours.
Find and lock a cheap rate (July 20, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|program||Mortgage rates||Effective interest rate*||change|
|Conventionally fixed for 30 years||2,686%||2,686%||-0.12%|
|Conventionally fixed for 15 years||1.99%||1.99%||-0.14%|
|Conventional 20 years old||2,375%||2,375%||-0.12%|
|Conventional 10 year fixed year||1,851%||1,858%||-0.11%|
|30 years permanent FHA||2,563%||3.214%||Unchanged|
|15 years fixed FTA||2,397%||2,997%||-0.08%|
|5/1 ARM FHA||2.5%||3.213%||Unchanged|
|30 years of permanent VA||2.25%||2,421%||Unchanged|
|15 years fixed VA||2.25%||2,571%||Unchanged|
|Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.|
Find and lock a cheap rate (July 20, 2021)
COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Read on to find out why mortgage rates are so unpredictable right now. Unfortunately, that makes both locking and levitating risky.
Those of us who predicted higher mortgage rates (almost all experts and observers) have so far been proven broadly wrong. But the fact that we got the timing wrong doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t rise anytime soon. And as long as the forces that should drive these rates remain strong, I must hold to my long-held view. However, I am less confident than before.
Although they need to be interpreted in this context, my personal rate lock recommendations must remain:
- LOCK when close in 7th Days
- LOCK when close in fifteen Days
- LOCK when close in 30th Days
- LOCK when close in 45 Days
- LOCK when close in 60 Days
However, I do not claim to have perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here’s a snapshot of the score this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates compared to about the same time yesterday were:
- The 10 year Treasury note yield fell from 1.21% to 1.16%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields, albeit less recently
- Important stock indices Almost all of them rose shortly after the opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower
- Oil prices fell on $ 66.08 from $ 68.72 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a major role in the development of inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
- Gold prices increased from $ 1 to $ 1,826,810 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
- CNN Business Fear and Greed Index – edged down to 16 of 19 of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our record for accuracy won’t hit its old highs until things settle down.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this reservation so far Mortgage rates are likely to fall slightly today. Note, however, that “intraday swings” (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find and lock a cheap rate (July 20, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
- Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
- Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
- When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust the closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
- The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so on
The market movements in the last few business days have been unusually sharp. A week ago, ten-year government bond yields (which are often overshadowed by mortgage rates) closed at 1.42%. But last night they closed at 1.21%. And this morning it was 1.15%. These are huge differences.
You can attribute these falls to pure emotion: namely, fear. Now there are solid reasons for some apprehension about the potential harm COVID-19 could do to the global economy. But if a new medical statistic or economic metric sparked recent declines in government bond, mortgage, and stock yields, it was one that passed me by. Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid seems to agree with this morning’s Guardian:
Unlike some previous Covid-related sell-offs (or vaccine rallies, indeed), there didn’t seem to be a single trigger for yesterday’s defeat, which instead appeared to be the culmination of mounting fears that a return to “normal” might be a little further out than many had hoped a few months ago.
– Guardian, Business Today e-newsletter, July 20, 2021
So it’s likely that investors suddenly began to fear a risk that has been evident for months. And despite the myth of perfect markets, they are just as susceptible to herd behavior as consumers when panicked to buy toilet paper.
The problem is that such an emotion-driven herd mentality is inherently capricious and unpredictable. Even now, it looks like mortgage rates may fall much more slowly today. And I can’t tell if they will continue to recover or fall again in the coming days (or weeks or months). I doubt anyone can, least of all those in the herd.
Read Saturday’s weekend edition for more background information.
Mortgage Rates and Inflation: Why Are Rates Rising?
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The latest weekly record low was hit on January 7th at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose.
However, in April and since then, those increases have been largely replaced by decreases, if only marginally. Freddie’s July 15 report puts that weekly average at 2.88% (with 0.7 fees and points). Low from 2.90% the previous week. And it is very likely that they will be even lower by the time it is released on Thursday.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were updated on July 19, Freddies on July 15, and the MBAs on June 18.
|Forecasters||Q3 / 21||Q4 / 21||Q1 / 22||Q2 / 22|
However, with so many imponderables, current forecasts could be even more speculative than usual.
Find your lowest rate today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save only a quarter point in interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new plan (July 20, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage report receives interest rates from several credit partners on a daily basis according to selected criteria. We’ll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.