Mortgage And Refinance Charges Immediately, July 1
Today’s mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates fell yesterday. So July began as June ended: not very exciting. Remember, the old saying, “May you live in interesting times” was a curse, not a blessing.
Continuing the topic, it looks like Mortgage rates today can stay the same or be inches higher. But, as always, events can exceed that prediction.
Find and lock a cheap rate (July 2nd, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|program||Mortgage rates||Effective interest rate*||change|
|Conventionally fixed for 30 years||2,925%||2,925%||-0.01%|
|Conventionally fixed for 15 years||2.25%||2.25%||Unchanged|
|Conventional 20 years old||2.75%||2.75%||Unchanged|
|Conventionally 10 years fixed year||1,953%||1,982%||Unchanged|
|30 years permanent FHA||2,691%||3,347%||-0.01%|
|Fixed FTA for 15 years||2,501%||3,103%||-0.05%|
|5 years ARM FHA||2.5%||3.213%||-0.01%|
|30 years of permanent VA||2,306%||2,477%||-0.02%|
|15 years fixed VA||2.25%||2,571%||Unchanged|
|5 years ARM-VA||2.5%||2,392%||-0.01%|
|Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. See our rate assumptions here.|
Find and lock a cheap rate (July 2nd, 2021)
COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Tomorrow’s official employment report could spark real movements in mortgage rates. Of course, we won’t know if this is the case until we see the numbers. But if you are still freeing up your interest rate then this should be perceived as a risk.
Apart from that, nothing has changed. Nobody knows when mortgage rates might go up. But most experts believe that at some point they will.
So my personal rate lock recommendations have to remain:
- LOCK when close in 7th Days
- LOCK when close in fifteen Days
- LOCK when close in 30th Days
- LOCK when close in 45 Days
- LOCK when close in 60 Days
However, I do not claim to have perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So you can be guided by your instincts and your personal willingness to take risks.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here’s a snapshot of the score this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates compared to about the same time yesterday were:
- The 10-year Treasury yield Inches to 1.46% from 1.45%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields, albeit less recently
- Important stock indices were mostly higher shortly after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower
- Oil prices increased to $ 76.20 from $ 73.50 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a major role in the development of inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
- Gold prices increased from $ 1.7 to $ 1,78057 an ounce. (Good for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
- CNN Business Fear and Greed Index – increased from to 44 41 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our record for accuracy won’t hit its old highs until things settle down.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this reservation so far Mortgage rates are likely to remain stable today or be a few inches higher. Note, however, that “intraday swings” (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find and lock a cheap rate (July 2nd, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
- Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
- Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
- When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust the closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
- The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so on
The nightcap e-newsletter from CNN Business summarized the stock market outlook overnight. But his analysis also applies to mortgage rates:
Much … will depend on the pandemic. Even if vaccination rates have risen, the coronavirus could jeopardize the reopening of the economy. And there is a bit of a tug-of-war over inflation: the Fed insists that it is “temporary” but prices are still rising and the central bank cannot ignore that. It is only a matter of time – and no one knows how long it will be – before the Fed has to take its foot off the accelerator.
– CNN Business Nightcap, “Tsk, Tsk”, June 30, 2021
The US Federal Reserve, which is taking its foot off the gas, will almost certainly include reducing its support for mortgage rates, which it is currently keeping artificially low. So without a COVID-19 resurgence or other disaster, higher rates are likely.
My favorite analysis right now is that mortgage rates will continue to drift without direction for a while. Yes, this can be broken up with occasional, more significant increases or decreases. But probably not enough to start a new trend.
At some point these rates will then rise significantly. And if the trigger for that surge is the Fed taking its foot off the accelerator, the surge in response could be strong.
Of course, events can overtake this scenario, as CNN pointed out. But right now it seems the most likely to me.
Mortgage Rates and Inflation: Why Are Rates Rising?
For more background information, see the weekend edition of this Saturday column, which offers more space for in-depth analysis.
Recently – Updated today
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The latest weekly record low was hit on January 7th at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose.
However, those rises were largely replaced by falls in April, although these moderated in the second half of this month. Meanwhile, May saw declines that slightly outweighed the increases. Freddie’s July 1 report puts that weekly average at 2.98% (with 0.6 fees and points). Low from 3.02% the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21, Q4 / 21) and the first quarter of 2022 (Q1 / 22).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were updated on June 16 and the MBAs on June 18. Freddie’s forecast is dated April 14th, but it is now only updated quarterly. So his numbers look out of date.
|Forecasters||Q2 / 21||Q3 / 21||Q4 / 21||Q1 / 22|
However, with so many imponderables, current forecasts could be even more speculative than usual.
Find your lowest rate today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save only a quarter point in interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new plan (July 2, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage report receives interest rates from several credit partners on a daily basis according to selected criteria. We’ll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. By averaging a number of rates, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.