Mortgage And Refinance Charges As we speak, Sept. 13
Today’s mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates fell again a little last Friday. But the week ended very close to the beginning, with rises almost offsetting declines. Still, that’s great considering how extraordinarily low these prices are right now.
So far, the markets have been signaling this morning that mortgage rates may be unchanged or hardly changed today. But of course, events later in the day could interfere with this forecast.
Find and lock a cheap rate (September 13, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|program||Mortgage rates||Effective interest rate*||Change|
|Conventionally fixed for 30 years||2,808%||2,808%||Unchanged|
|Conventionally fixed for 15 years||1.99%||1.99%||Unchanged|
|Conventional 20 years old||2,391%||2,391%||Unchanged|
|Conventionally fixed for 10 years||1,848%||1,892%||Unchanged|
|30 years permanent FHA||2,688%||3,343%||Unchanged|
|15 years fixed FTA||2.39%||2.99%||Unchanged|
|5/1 ARM FHA||2.5%||3.213%||Unchanged|
|30 years of permanent VA||2.25%||2,421%||Unchanged|
|15 years fixed VA||2,218%||2,539%||Unchanged|
|Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.|
Find and lock a cheap rate (September 13, 2021)
COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
After another week with mortgage rates effectively stable, we could see the same thing over the next seven days. To cheer! Because nobody cares that these prices are unexciting when they are so close to the all-time lows.
But the longer they stay calm, the further they are likely to travel when a wind blows. And economists mostly expect an upward trend when they finally get going again.
My personal rate lock recommendations remain for the time being:
- LOCK when close in 7th Days
- LOCK when close in fifteen Days
- LOCK when close in 30th Days
- HOVER when close in 45 Days
- HOVER when close in 60 Days
However, I do not claim to have perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So you can be guided by your instincts and your personal willingness to take risks.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here’s a snapshot of the score this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to roughly the same time last Friday, were:
- the 10 year Treasury note yield stable again at 1.33%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields
- Important stock indices were higher shortly after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower
- Oil prices rose to $ 70.62 from $ 69.70 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a major role in the development of inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
- Gold prices dropped from to $ 1,794 $ 1,796 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
- CNN Business Fear and Greed Index – fallen from 45 to 40 From 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our record for accuracy won’t hit its old highs until things settle down.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this reservation so far Mortgage rates are likely to remain unchanged or hardly changed today. Note, however, that “intraday swings” (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find and lock a cheap rate (September 13, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
- Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
- Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
- When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust the closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
- The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so forth
I often quote the late great Harvard economist, John Kenneth Galbraith, who once remarked, “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology appear honorable.” And it is true that even the greatest economist who uses the most sophisticated modeling tools , can look stupid when unexpected events clash with their predictions.
In the weekend edition of this Saturday column, I identified and examined the three risk factors that I believe are most likely to affect mortgage rates. And two of them would push her higher.
But it is entirely possible that something completely unexpected will come out of the left field that will change everything. It happens every now and then.
However, in deciding when to lock your mortgage rate on, you need to weigh the likely risks and rewards. And for now, I’m assuming that the rewards for another period of floating will likely prove to be small. However, the risks remain high.
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The latest weekly record low was hit on January 7th at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose.
However, in April and beyond, these increases were largely replaced by decreases, albeit typically small. And interest rates have barely moved lately. Freddie’s September 9 report builds on this weekly average 2.88% (with 0.7 fees and points), high from 2.87% the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies and the MBAs were updated on August 19th. Freddies was last updated on July 15th as these numbers are now only published quarterly. And his prognosis is already looking stale.
|Forecasters||Q3 / 21||Q4 / 21||Q1 / 22||Q2 / 22|
However, with so many imponderables, all of the current forecasts could be even more speculative than usual.
All of these predictions anticipate higher mortgage rates soon. But the differences between the forecasters are stark. And Fannie may not be involved in curbing Federal Reserve mortgage support while Freddie and the MBA do.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save a quarter point on interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new plan (September 13, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage report receives interest rates from several credit partners on a daily basis according to selected criteria. We’ll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. By averaging a number of rates, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.